XRP : The Catchup Bull Run

XRP vs Ethereum: Market Cap Catch-Up and Future Potential Analysis

Introduction

From 2018 to 2020, XRP's market capitalization averaged approximately 47.6% of Ethereum's market cap. During that period, XRP was a dominant player in the crypto space, often competing closely with Ethereum for the number two spot by market capitalization. However, the SEC lawsuit against Ripple in late 2020 heavily suppressed XRP's performance during the subsequent 2021 bull run.

Now, with the lawsuit largely behind it, XRP has regained significant market cap relative to Ethereum, currently hovering around 54%-57% of Ethereum's market capitalization as of April 2025. This report explores how XRP may have performed without legal suppression in 2021 and projects potential targets for the current bull run.

Historical Context

• January 2018 - December 2020:

  • XRP averaged 47.6% of Ethereum's market cap.

    
    

• 2021 Bull Run (Suppressed Scenario):

  • XRP peaked around $1.96, heavily suppressed due to delistings and fear from the SEC lawsuit.

    
    

• No Lawsuit Scenario (Fair Value 2021 Estimate):

  • Based on historical XRP-to-ETH ratios, a fair 2021 XRP value would have been between $5.70 and $12.13.

  • These numbers reflect XRP maintaining ~47% to 100% of Ethereum's market cap at Ethereum's $4,878 ATH.

    
    

Current Status

• As of April 2025:

  • XRP is priced around $2.19.

  • Ethereum is priced around $1,791.91.

  • XRP market cap is about 54.6% of Ethereum's, demonstrating significant recovery.

Projection: 2025 Bull Run

Historically, during major crypto bull runs, large-cap assets tend to 3X from their previous all-time highs (ATHs), assuming macro conditions are favorable.

• Ethereum ATH: ~$4,878

  • 3X Target: ~$14,500

• XRP 2018 ATH (actual suppressed ATH not used): ~$3.84

Using "No Lawsuit" 2021 Price Estimates:

Scenario	2021 XRP Fair Value	3X Multiplier	2025 Target Price
Conservative (47% of ETH)	~$5.70	x3	~$17.10
Aggressive (Parity with ETH)	~$12.13	x3	~$36.39

Thus, if XRP had not been suppressed by the lawsuit and follows the typical 3X large-cap pattern, realistic 2025 bull run targets range from ~$17 to ~$36.

Key Considerations Supporting a Strong XRP Run

• Lawsuit Resolved: XRP is no longer hindered by fear or delistings in the United States.

• Market Position: XRP is back to ~55% of Ethereum's market cap pre-major run, similar to historical norms.

• Tokenization and Stablecoins: Ripple's push into tokenization (real-world assets) and launching a stablecoin on XRPL could further boost utility and adoption.

• Institutional Interest: With legal clarity, institutions may be more comfortable supporting XRP-based products and investments.

Conclusion

If XRP had not been entangled in legal battles, it would likely have reached a price between $5.70 and $12.13 in the 2021 bull run. Assuming it now benefits from the full momentum of a normal bull market cycle, XRP's realistic 2025 targets range between $17 and $36, based on a 3X multiplier from its "fair value" 2021 estimates.

In short, XRP has now caught up and may be positioned to finish this bull run at a very high price, finally shrugging off the last shadows of its legal troubles.